Brazil fertilizer imports: a record 45 Mt and 85% dependence

Brazil fertilizer imports reached a record 45.5 million tonnes in 2025, up from 44.3 Mt in 2024, according to Conab. About 85% of the fertilizer Brazilian agriculture uses comes from abroad, per the fertilizer industry association ANDA, and for potash the figure is close to 95%. Brazil is one of the world's largest agricultural exporters and one of its largest fertilizer importers, and the second fact is the weak point of the first: soy, corn, sugarcane and coffee yields depend on nitrogen, phosphate and potash that are mined or made mostly in Russia, China, Canada, the Middle East, North Africa and Nigeria.

The 2026 Hormuz closure hit Brazil through price more than volume. Brazil's direct exposure to the strait in urea is smaller than the global average: Qatar supplied 13% of its 7.7 Mt of urea imports in 2025, while the largest suppliers, Nigeria and Russia, ship from outside the Gulf. But the global price reset reached Brazilian ports within weeks: Itaú BBA recorded urea at $710 a tonne delivered to Brazil in April 2026, up 50% in 30 days. In March the Ministry of Agriculture warned in technical notes of a very high risk of shortages and price increases for the 2026/27 crop, including a possible deficit of 1 to 3 Mt of phosphate fertilizers.

Key numbers

How the dependency works

Brazil depends on imports for each of the three main nutrients, in different ways. Nitrogen: urea came from Nigeria (23%), Russia (17%), Oman (16%), Qatar (13%) and Algeria (9%) in 2025, per Secex; ammonium sulfate, largely from China, has gained share because it is cheaper per tonne. See nitrogen fertilizers. Phosphate: Brazil mines some phosphate rock and makes MAP and single superphosphate, but not enough, and imports finished phosphates from Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China. See Morocco's phosphate reserves. Potash: the only domestic mine, Taquari-Vassouras in Sergipe, produces a fraction of demand; the rest comes from Canada, Russia and Belarus. See potash.

Russia is the largest single supplier across all products, with 25.9% of imports in 2025 according to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade, and China is third. The purchase calendar concentrates risk: most fertilizer for the main soy crop is bought between the first and third quarters and planted from September.

Why it exists

Brazilian agriculture grew on tropical soils that are naturally poor in phosphorus and potassium, so yields depend on heavy fertilization. Domestic production did not keep pace: gas for nitrogen was expensive, Petrobras closed or leased its nitrogen plants in the late 2010s, and the largest potash deposits, in Amazonas, have been held up by licensing and indigenous consultation disputes. Brazil's own planning documents put its urea production cost at about $280 a tonne, against $48 in Nigeria and $58 in Russia.

Risks and disruption scenarios

The reference cases are 2022 and 2026. In 2022, sanctions fears around Russia and Belarus pushed potassium chloride in Brazil from under $300 to over $1,200 a tonne, per StoneX, and led to the National Fertilizer Plan. In 2026, the Hormuz closure and Chinese export curbs raised urea and phosphate prices at the same time. The Confederation of Agriculture (CNA) found that less than 45% of the fertilizer needed for the 2026/27 crop had been bought by the end of June 2026, which leaves the harvest exposed to further price moves.

The structural risks remain concentration on Russia, dependence on Chinese export policy, the timing of purchases and the logistics of receiving 45 Mt a year through a handful of ports.

Diversification efforts

• National Fertilizer Plan (PNF 2050). Targets cutting import dependence from about 85% to 45% to 50% by 2050; early years showed no statistical progress.
• Nitrogen restart. Petrobras resumed nitrogen fertilizer production at its Sergipe and Bahia plants around the turn of 2026.
• New capacity. Ministry of Agriculture data compiled by Argus point to about 9.8 Mt of new annual production by 2030, against about 7.2 Mt produced in 2025.
• Potash projects. The Autazes project in Amazonas, run by Brazil Potash, remains subject to legal disputes.
• Product substitution. Buyers shifted to lower-concentration products such as ammonium sulfate and single superphosphate in 2025, which raised tonnage without raising nutrients.

Historical incidents

What to watch

• Monthly Secex and Conab import data by product and origin.
• Purchase pace for the 2026/27 crop, tracked by CNA and consultancies.
• Urea and MAP prices at Brazilian ports.
• Hormuz reopening and Chinese export policy, the two external variables that moved prices in 2026.
• PNF project milestones and Petrobras nitrogen output.

FAQ

How much fertilizer does Brazil import? A record 45.5 million tonnes in 2025, according to Conab, up from 44.3 Mt in 2024. About 85% of the fertilizer used in Brazilian agriculture is imported, per ANDA.

Where does Brazil import fertilizer from? Russia is the largest supplier, with 25.9% of imports in 2025, followed by other suppliers including China, Canada, Morocco, Nigeria and the Middle East. In urea, the main origins were Nigeria, Russia, Oman, Qatar and Algeria. Potash comes mainly from Canada, Russia and Belarus.

How did the Strait of Hormuz closure affect Brazil? Mostly through price. Qatar supplied only 13% of Brazil's urea in 2025, but the closure raised world prices, and urea reached $710 a tonne at Brazilian ports in April 2026, up 50% in a month. The Ministry of Agriculture warned of shortage risks for phosphates in the 2026/27 crop.

What is the National Fertilizer Plan? A federal plan launched in 2022 to reduce Brazil's dependence on imported fertilizer from about 85% to 45% to 50% by 2050, through new domestic production of nitrogen, phosphate and potash.