Potash producers: Canada, Russia, Belarus and the sanctions chokepoint

Potash producers are fewer and more concentrated than in any other fertilizer. World output was about 49 million tonnes of potassium oxide equivalent in 2025, according to the USGS, and Canada produced about 15 Mt of it, Russia about 10 Mt, with Belarus and China next. Four companies, Nutrien, Mosaic, Belaruskali and Uralkali, dominate the traded market. Potash, mostly sold as muriate of potash or potassium chloride, supplies the potassium that crops need for water regulation and yield, and like phosphorus it can only come from mined deposits.

Potash is the one major fertilizer the 2026 Hormuz closure barely touched: almost none of it comes from the Persian Gulf. Its chokepoints are different. Two of the three largest producers, Russia and Belarus, face Western sanctions, and Belarus lost its main export route through Lithuania in 2022. Canadian supply depends on long rail hauls to Vancouver and a few ports. And the largest importers, above all Brazil, which imports about 95% of its potash, have no domestic alternative at scale. See Brazil's fertilizer import dependence.

Key numbers

Supply: who produces potash

Canada's Saskatchewan basin is the largest producing region, run by Nutrien and Mosaic and marketed offshore through Canpotex. Russia's output comes mainly from Uralkali and EuroChem in the Perm and Volgograd regions. Belarus produces through the state-owned Belaruskali. China, Israel and Jordan (from the Dead Sea), Germany (K+S), Chile and Laos make up most of the rest. Belarus's production for 2025 was not confirmed from the USGS summary at the time of writing ⏳.

New supply is coming mainly from Laos and Russia, per the USGS, with new mines planned in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco and Spain. BHP's Jansen project in Saskatchewan is the largest new Western mine; its start-up date has slipped and should be checked against BHP's latest guidance ⏳.

Demand: who imports it

Brazil, China, the United States, India and Southeast Asia are the largest importers. Brazil was the second largest potash importer in the world in 2020, with 11.33 Mt, and 96.4% of the potash it consumed that year was imported, per the federal government's fertilizer plan documents. Its only domestic mine, Taquari-Vassouras in Sergipe, produces a small fraction of demand. The United States imports most of its potash from Canada, 79% in 2020 to 2023, per the USGS.

Supply chain chokepoints

Sanctions. The EU and the United States sanctioned Belarus's state potash exporter, and Lithuania terminated the contract that allowed Belarusian potash to leave through the port of Klaipeda in 2022. Belarus now exports through Russian ports and by rail to China, per the USGS. Russian Baltic exports pass the Danish Straits.

Canadian logistics. Saskatchewan potash travels more than 1,500 km by rail to Pacific ports such as Vancouver. Rail and port labour disputes can halt exports.

The Red Sea. Jordanian and Israeli potash from the Dead Sea ships through Aqaba and Eilat, and Asian-bound cargoes pass Bab el-Mandeb.

Geology. Economic potash deposits are rare and deep, so supply cannot respond quickly to price.

Price dynamics

Potash is sold mostly under annual contracts to China and India, which set a floor for the market, and on spot terms in Brazil and Southeast Asia. Prices spiked in 2022 on fears that Russian and Belarusian supply would stop: potassium chloride in Brazil jumped from under $300 to over $1,200 a tonne, per StoneX. They fell back as those flows continued through new routes. In 2026, potash moved far less than urea or phosphates, because the Hormuz closure did not cut its supply.

Historical disruptions

Companies and assets along the chain

Producers. Nutrien, Mosaic and Canpotex (Canada), Uralkali and EuroChem (Russia), Belaruskali (Belarus), K+S (Germany), ICL (Israel), Arab Potash Company (Jordan), SQM (Chile), BHP (Jansen).

Brazilian projects. Mosaic's Taquari-Vassouras mine and the Autazes project in Amazonas, developed by Brazil Potash and subject to legal disputes over indigenous consultation.

Importers and distributors. Brazilian blenders and distributors, Chinese and Indian state buyers, and US cooperatives. This entry is descriptive: the encyclopedia does not publish recommendations.

What to watch

• Annual China and India contract prices, the market's benchmark.
• Sanctions policy on Belarus and Russia.
• Canadian rail and port operations.
• Jansen and other new mine start-ups.
• Brazil's import data from Secex and Conab.

FAQ

Who are the largest potash producers? Canada, with about 15 million tonnes of K2O in 2025, and Russia, with about 10 Mt, according to the USGS, followed by Belarus and China. Nutrien, Mosaic, Belaruskali and Uralkali dominate the traded market.

Where does Brazil get its potash? Mostly from Canada, Russia and Belarus. Brazil imports about 95% of the potash it uses, and its only domestic mine, in Sergipe, covers a small fraction of demand.

Did the Hormuz closure affect potash? Very little. Almost no potash comes from the Persian Gulf, so its supply and prices were far more stable than those of urea and phosphates in 2026. Its main risks are sanctions on Russia and Belarus and logistics in Canada.

Why are Belarus potash exports sanctioned? The EU and the United States imposed sanctions on Belarus's state potash exporter from 2021 over political repression, and later over Belarus's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania ended transit through Klaipeda in 2022, so Belarus now exports through Russian ports and by rail.