Morocco phosphate reserves: two-thirds of the world's supply of a mineral with no substitute
Morocco phosphate reserves total about 50 billion tonnes, roughly 68% of the world's known reserves, according to the USGS. Phosphorus has no substitute in agriculture: every crop needs it, and it can only come from mined rock. Morocco produced 36 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2025, second only to China's 110 Mt, and it is the country the rest of the world will depend on as other deposits deplete. All of it is mined and processed by OCP Group, 94.12% owned by the Moroccan state.
The dependency runs in two directions. Much of the world depends on Morocco for phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and fertilizers such as DAP and MAP. Morocco, in turn, depends on imports of sulfur and ammonia to turn rock into fertilizer, and the Gulf supplies about 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur. When the Strait of Hormuz closed in 2026, DAP prices rose from about $580 to $770 a tonne, per the WTO, both because Gulf phosphate exporters such as Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden were cut off and because the sulfur that phosphate producers everywhere need became scarce.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate rock reserves | 50 billion t | USGS | 2026-01 |
| Share of world reserves | ~68% | USGS | 2026-01 |
| Phosphate rock production | 36 Mt | USGS | 2025 |
| World phosphate rock production | 250 Mt | USGS | 2025 |
| OCP solid fertilizer output | 12.3 Mt | USGS | 2024 |
| OCP rock capacity | 47.5 Mt/y | USGS | 2024 |
| OCP rock capacity target | 70 Mt/y by 2028 | USGS | 2025 |
| DAP price after Hormuz closed | ~$770/t | WTO | 2026-04 |
The world reserve share is calculated from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 table, whose country reserves total about 73 billion tonnes.
How the dependency works
OCP is vertically integrated. It mines rock at Khouribga, Gantour, Meskala and Bou Craa, converts part of it into phosphoric acid and fertilizers at Jorf Lasfar and Safi, and exports rock, acid and finished products. In 2024 it produced 12.3 Mt of solid fertilizers, including 4.2 Mt of DAP, 3.8 Mt of MAP and 2.7 Mt of triple superphosphate, and 7.4 Mt of phosphoric acid, per the USGS.
Its buyers include India, the largest importer of Moroccan rock, and Brazil, where Moroccan MAP is one of the main sources of phosphate for soy and corn. The share of Brazil's phosphate imports supplied by Morocco in 2025 was not confirmed at the time of writing ⏳. See Brazil's fertilizer import dependence.
Why it exists
Geology. Morocco's sedimentary phosphate basins are the largest on Earth, and reserves elsewhere are smaller or declining: China's 3.4 billion tonnes are mined mainly for its own market, and US reserves of about 1 billion tonnes are falling in grade. Morocco turned that endowment into an industrial strategy, moving from exporting rock to exporting finished fertilizer.
Risks and disruption scenarios
Input dependence. Making phosphate fertilizer requires sulfuric acid, made from sulfur, and ammonia for DAP and MAP. Both are largely imported and both are heavily exposed to the Gulf, as 2026 showed.
Trade barriers. The United States has imposed countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers since 2021, which raised US prices and redirected Moroccan exports to other markets. China's export restrictions on phosphates since 2021 have increased demand for Moroccan supply.
Territory. The Bou Craa mine lies in Western Sahara, a territory whose status is disputed, which periodically raises legal and reputational questions for buyers.
Concentration. A single state company controls two-thirds of the world's reserves, which makes OCP's investment and pricing decisions a global variable.
Diversification efforts
- Capacity growth. OCP is expanding rock capacity from 47.5 Mt a year in 2024 to 70 Mt a year by 2028, per the USGS.
- Input security. Long-term sulfur and ammonia supply contracts and investment in green ammonia to reduce dependence on imports.
- New producers elsewhere. Capacity expansions in Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Russia, and new projects in Canada, Congo, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, per the USGS; none compares with Morocco in scale.
Historical incidents
| Date | Event | Observed impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 to 2026-04 | Hormuz closure cuts Gulf phosphate and sulfur exports | DAP rises from about $580 to $770/t | WTO |
| 2025-11 | US adds phosphate rock to its critical minerals list | Formal recognition of import dependence | US Department of the Interior |
| 2022-03 | Russia invades Ukraine | Phosphate fertilizer prices reach record levels | World Bank |
| 2021 | US countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers; China restricts phosphate exports | US imports of DAP and MAP fall; Moroccan exports shift to other markets | US International Trade Commission; World Bank |
What to watch
- OCP production and export data, and progress toward 70 Mt a year.
- Sulfur prices and Gulf sulfur exports, the input most exposed to Hormuz.
- DAP and MAP prices in India and Brazil.
- Chinese phosphate export policy.
- US duties on Moroccan fertilizers.
FAQ
Which country has the largest phosphate reserves? Morocco, with about 50 billion tonnes, around 68% of known world reserves according to USGS data. China is a distant second with 3.4 billion tonnes, followed by Egypt, Tunisia and Russia.
Who controls Moroccan phosphate? OCP Group, which is 94.12% owned by the Moroccan state and is the only producer of phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizers in the country.
Why did phosphate prices rise in 2026? The Strait of Hormuz closure cut off Gulf phosphate exporters and about 44% of seaborne sulfur trade. Sulfur is needed to make phosphoric acid, so producers everywhere, including in Morocco, faced higher costs. DAP rose from about $580 to $770 a tonne, per the WTO.
Can the world replace Moroccan phosphate? Not in the long run. Other producers such as China, the United States and Russia have much smaller reserves, and phosphorus has no substitute as a crop nutrient. New mines are being developed in several countries, but Morocco's reserves are an order of magnitude larger.
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