Qatar LNG exports: Ras Laffan, Hormuz and who buys the gas

Qatar LNG exports reached about 80.5 million tonnes in 2025, making the country the world's second largest supplier after the United States, according to GIIGNL. All of it comes from one place: 14 liquefaction trains with 77 MTPA of capacity at Ras Laffan, fed by the North Field, and all of it has to leave through the Strait of Hormuz. That double concentration is the dependency. When Hormuz closed on 28 February 2026 and Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan on 18 and 19 March, about a fifth of the world's LNG supply stopped at once.

QatarEnergy says trains 4 and 6, 12.8 MTPA or 17% of its capacity, will take three to five years to repair, and it has warned of force majeure on some long-term contracts for up to five years. As of mid-September 2026 most of the remaining trains have restarted, but exports have barely moved: a handful of cargoes has crossed Hormuz or been transferred ship to ship off Oman, and the rest of the output is loaded, stored or sent to Kuwait inside the Gulf.

Key numbers

How the dependency works

It runs in two directions. Qatar depends on a single export route, and a group of importers depends on Qatar.

On the supply side, the North Field, which Qatar shares with Iran's South Pars, feeds a single industrial city on the northeast coast. Ras Laffan was built for speed, loading 140 to 150 cargoes a month before the war, and has no alternative outlet for LNG. The Dolphin pipeline sends pipeline gas to the UAE and Oman but carries no LNG and never leaves the Gulf.

On the demand side, the exposure is concentrated in Asia, which took nearly 90% of Qatari LNG in 2025, per Kpler. According to GIIGNL, Qatar supplied 46% of India's LNG imports, around 30% of China's, 33% of Taiwan's and 15% of South Korea's. Bangladesh and Pakistan buy most of their LNG from Qatar and have the least capacity to replace it at spot prices. In Europe, Italy and Belgium hold large long-term contracts: Edison's 25-year deal alone covers 6.4 bcm a year to the Adriatic LNG terminal. See natural gas: producers and importers for the wider trade map.

Why it exists

Qatar chose scale over diversity. The North Field is the world's largest gas field and cheap to develop, so the country built one enormous export complex rather than several smaller ones, and signed long-term contracts that made it the anchor supplier for Japan, Korea, India and later China. The Persian Gulf geography was accepted as a fixed risk because Hormuz had never been closed, even during the Tanker War of the 1980s. The North Field East, North Field South and North Field West expansions were designed to push capacity to 142 MTPA by 2030, all at the same site and behind the same strait.

Risks and disruption scenarios

The 2026 war turned every theoretical risk into a real one. Production across the complex was suspended on 2 March after the first drone strike, force majeure was declared on near-term exports, and the March missile attacks damaged trains 4 and 6, joint ventures with ExxonMobil, as well as Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant. QatarEnergy named China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium as the markets affected by long-term force majeure. Replacement gas turbines carry two to four-year lead times, according to The National.

Restart has been slow and exports slower. By early July four of the seven trains at the northern plant were producing, and force majeure on some cargoes had been extended to mid-September. Edison said 21 cargoes due between April and early September, about 2.7 bcm, were withheld. The QatarEnergy carrier Al Rekayyat was struck by a projectile near Hormuz in July, and after it Qatar all but stopped sending ships through the strait. In August three cargoes loaded in Qatar and the UAE were transferred between vessels off Oman and the UAE before continuing to Asia, per Kpler and Vortexa data reported by Euronews. AGBI reported on 2 July 2026 that an explosion at the Barzan domestic gas facility at Ras Laffan had killed 13 people.

The remaining risks are a longer closure of Hormuz, further strikes on Ras Laffan, the North Field East start-up slipping beyond 2027, and buyers signing long-term replacement contracts with US and other suppliers that permanently reduce Qatar's market share.

Diversification efforts

• Ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz. Qatar and the UAE began moving LNG between carriers off Oman in August 2026, a technically difficult and costly workaround for a cargo that boils off at sea.
• Empty carriers sent back into the Gulf. Bloomberg tracked six Qatar-linked empty carriers heading for the Gulf of Oman in early September 2026, a possible sign of a push to restart loadings.
• Kuwait as an outlet. QatarEnergy has kept supplying Kuwait inside the Gulf to manage storage and keep parts of the complex running.
• Expansion under review. North Field East, 32 MTPA, was due to start in 2026; QatarEnergy is reported to have pushed first exports to at least 2027.
• Portfolio supply for buyers. Edison replaced 14 of its 21 missing cargoes with other supply; Asian utilities have turned to spot cargoes and US LNG.

Historical incidents

What to watch

• Hormuz LNG transits in Kpler and Vortexa data, and ship-to-ship activity off Oman: the only way Qatari output reaches buyers while the strait is closed.
• QatarEnergy statements on train restarts, force majeure notices and the repair schedule for trains 4 and 6.
• North Field East start-up date, now expected no earlier than 2027.
• Replacement contracts signed by Asian and European buyers with US, Canadian and African suppliers, which would lock in a lower Qatari share after the war.
• JKM and TTF prices: the market's running valuation of the missing Qatari supply.

FAQ

How much LNG does Qatar export? About 80.5 million tonnes in 2025, according to GIIGNL, making Qatar the second largest exporter behind the United States. All of it comes from the Ras Laffan complex, which has 77 MTPA of nameplate capacity across 14 trains.

Is Qatar still exporting LNG? Only a small amount. Since the Strait of Hormuz closed on 28 February 2026, very few Qatari cargoes have crossed it, and after a QatarEnergy carrier was hit near the strait in July, exports all but stopped. Some cargoes have been moved ship to ship off Oman and some gas goes to Kuwait inside the Gulf.

What happened at Ras Laffan? Iranian missiles struck the complex on 18 and 19 March 2026, damaging liquefaction trains 4 and 6, which account for 12.8 MTPA or 17% of Qatar's capacity. QatarEnergy says repairs will take three to five years and expects to lose about $20 billion of revenue a year until then.

Which countries depend most on Qatari LNG? India, which took 46% of its LNG from Qatar in 2025, followed by Taiwan (33%), China (around 30%) and South Korea (15%), per GIIGNL. Bangladesh and Pakistan rely on Qatar for most of their LNG. In Europe, Italy and Belgium hold the largest long-term contracts.