US LNG exports: the largest supplier, and the winner of 2026

US LNG exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, 23% more than a year earlier and the fastest growth since large-scale exports began in 2016, according to the EIA. The United States was already the largest exporter in 2025, at a record 15.1 Bcf/d, about 26% of world LNG trade. New capacity at Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 explains most of the 2026 jump; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which took Qatari and Emirati LNG off the market, explains why every molecule found a buyer at high prices.

The dependency runs both ways. Europe relied on US cargoes for 68% of US export volumes in 2025 and for more than half of its own LNG, which makes US Gulf Coast terminals the single largest source of European gas after Norway. Since March 2026 Asia has competed for the same cargoes: US exports to Asia more than doubled in the first half. The exposures on the US side are domestic price, hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, a handful of terminals and export policy.

Key numbers

How the dependency works

US LNG is shale gas priced at Henry Hub, liquefied on the Gulf Coast and sold mostly under long-term tolling or free-on-board contracts with destination flexibility. That flexibility is the point: cargoes go wherever the spread between Henry Hub and TTF or JKM pays for liquefaction and shipping. In 2025 that meant Europe, which took 10.3 Bcf/d, up from 6.3 Bcf/d in 2024, while exports to Asia fell to 2.5 Bcf/d.

The 2026 war changed the map. In the first half exports to Europe rose only 1% while exports to Asia rose 2.3 Bcf/d, or 108%. The top destinations were Egypt and the Netherlands at 1.7 Bcf/d each, Italy at 1.4 Bcf/d, France at 1.2 Bcf/d and the United Kingdom at 1.1 Bcf/d, per the EIA. See Europe's gas import dependence for the buyer side.

Why it exists

Shale made the United States the world's largest gas producer, with more than a quarter of global output, and low Henry Hub prices created an arbitrage that justified building export plants from 2016. The 2022 loss of Russian pipeline gas to Europe then turned US LNG from a commercial option into a security asset, and the EU-US trade framework of July 2025 included a $750 billion energy purchase commitment. See natural gas: producers and importers.

Risks and disruption scenarios

The main US-side risks are concentrated. A single outage can remove a large share of capacity: the June 2022 explosion at Freeport LNG took about 15% of US export capacity offline for eight months. The terminals cluster on the Texas and Louisiana coast, exposed to hurricanes from June to November. Domestic politics matter too: the 2024 pause on approvals for exports to countries without a free trade agreement froze new investment decisions for a year.

On the market side, record exports tie European and Asian prices more closely to Henry Hub, and a sustained rise in US domestic prices would narrow the arbitrage that keeps cargoes flowing. For buyers, the risk is concentration: with Qatar constrained, IEEFA expects the US share of Europe's LNG to approach two-thirds in 2026.

Diversification efforts

• Capacity growth. Corpus Christi Stage 3 reached substantial completion in August 2026 and Golden Pass shipped its first cargo on 22 April 2026. The EIA expects Port Arthur Phase 1, Rio Grande trains 1 and 2 and the last Golden Pass train in 2027, and exports of 18.7 Bcf/d in the first half of 2027.
• Permit expansions. Plaquemines and Elba Island received DOE approval in March and April 2026 to raise permitted exports by 0.5 Bcf/d and 0.1 Bcf/d.
• More projects. Six US LNG projects reached final investment decision in 2025; industry estimates put capacity above 30 Bcf/d early next decade.

Historical incidents

What to watch

• EIA Natural Gas Monthly and STEO for export volumes and destinations.
• Start-up dates at Golden Pass, Port Arthur and Rio Grande.
• Henry Hub against TTF and JKM: the spread that decides where cargoes go.
• Hurricane season on the Gulf Coast, June to November.
• DOE export authorisations and any change in federal LNG policy.

FAQ

How much LNG does the US export? A record 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 and 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, according to the EIA. That makes the United States the world's largest LNG exporter, with about a quarter of global trade.

Where does US LNG go? Mostly to Europe, which took 68% of US LNG in 2025. In 2026 exports to Asia more than doubled because Qatari supply was cut off by the Hormuz closure. The top destinations in the first half of 2026 were Egypt, the Netherlands, Italy, France and the United Kingdom.

What is US LNG export capacity? About 18.3 Bcf/d of peak capacity in 2026, from nine terminals, per the EIA. New trains at Corpus Christi and Golden Pass are ramping up, and Port Arthur and Rio Grande are due in 2027.

Does Europe depend on US LNG? Increasingly. US cargoes were more than half of EU LNG imports in 2025, and IEEFA expects the share to approach two-thirds in 2026 with Qatar constrained. After Norway's pipelines, US LNG is Europe's second largest gas source.