Norway gas exports: Europe's largest supplier and its single points of failure
Norway gas exports by pipeline totalled 114.9 bcm in 2025, according to system operator Gassco, slightly below the 2024 record of 117.6 bcm. Adding LNG from Hammerfest, total exports were around 122 bcm. Norway has been Europe's largest gas supplier since Russian flows collapsed in 2022, providing about 30% of combined EU and UK consumption and 30.9% of EU gas imports in 2025, per the Council of the EU. Almost all of it travels through an 8,800 km subsea network to Germany, the UK, Belgium, France and, since 2022, Denmark and Poland.
That makes Norway both Europe's most reliable supplier and one of its largest single points of failure. A single field, Troll, produced a record 42.5 bcm in 2024, more than 10% of European demand on its own, and a handful of processing plants (Kollsnes, Kårstø, Nyhamna) handle most of the flow. Gassco expects deliveries to stay between 110 and 120 bcm in 2026: Norway is at a plateau, so it cannot add much when other supply fails, as it could not in 2026 when the loss of Qatari LNG tightened Europe's market. See Europe's gas import dependence.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pipeline gas deliveries | 114.9 bcm | Gassco | 2025 |
| Record pipeline deliveries | 117.6 bcm | Gassco | 2024 |
| Deliveries to Germany (incl. Denmark branch) | 58 bcm | Gassco | 2025 |
| Deliveries to the UK | 27 bcm | Gassco | 2025 |
| Deliveries to France / Belgium | 16 bcm each | Gassco | 2025 |
| Gas production, record | 124 bcm | Norwegian Offshore Directorate | 2024 |
| Troll field output | 42.5 bcm | Equinor | 2024 |
| Hammerfest LNG capacity | ~6.5 bcm/y | Gassco | static |
How the dependency works
Norwegian gas flows through a single integrated system run by Gassco on behalf of the Gassled owners. Offshore fields feed processing plants at Kollsnes, Kårstø and Nyhamna, and trunk lines (Langeled to the UK, Europipe I and II and Norpipe to Germany, Zeepipe to Belgium, Franpipe to France, and Baltic Pipe via Denmark to Poland) carry it to the continent. Daily deliveries typically run close to 340 million cubic metres. Hammerfest LNG, fed by the Snøhvit field in the Arctic, is Norway's only LNG export plant.
Germany is the largest buyer at 58 bcm in 2025, followed by the UK at 27 bcm and France and Belgium at 16 bcm each, per Gassco. The flow is inflexible in one direction: Norway runs close to capacity year round, so the seasonal swing comes from maintenance, scheduled mainly in the summer months, rather than from spare output.
Why it exists
Norway has large reserves, a tiny domestic market and a pipeline system built from the 1970s onward specifically to serve continental Europe. When Russian pipeline gas fell from over 150 bcm to 36 bcm between 2021 and 2025, Norway was the only large pipeline supplier able to deliver more, and it ran at record levels in 2022 and 2024. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects output to stay near current levels until 2027 and then decline, to about 111 bcm in 2029.
Risks and disruption scenarios
The risks are technical and physical rather than political. Unplanned outages at Troll or at a processing plant can remove tens of millions of cubic metres a day at short notice and move TTF within hours. The sabotage of Nord Stream in September 2022 showed that subsea infrastructure can be attacked, and Norway has since increased naval and coast guard patrols around its platforms and pipelines. Heavy maintenance years, such as 2023 and the schedule Gassco has published for 2027, cut capacity in the months when Europe refills storage.
The longer risk is decline. Norway cannot grow into the gap left by Russia or by Qatar, and without new discoveries tied back to existing hubs output falls after 2027, just as the EU's ban on Russian gas takes full effect.
Diversification efforts
- Field life extension. Equinor is investing about 12 billion kroner in Troll West gas infrastructure, with first wells due at the end of 2026.
- Tie-backs. New smaller discoveries are connected to existing hubs to slow decline rather than replace it.
- Security. Increased naval surveillance of offshore installations and pipelines since 2022.
- For buyers: Norway's plateau is the reason Europe keeps adding US LNG. See US LNG exports.
Historical incidents
| Date | Event | Observed impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Qatari LNG loss tightens European supply | Gassco guides 2026 deliveries to its 110 to 120 bcm range, with no spare capacity to offset the loss | Gassco; GIIGNL |
| 2025 | Deliveries of 114.9 bcm with record system availability | Down 2.3% from the 2024 record | Gassco |
| 2024 | Record production of 124 bcm; Troll at 42.5 bcm | Norway consolidates its place as Europe's top supplier | Norwegian Offshore Directorate; Equinor |
| 2023-09 | Heavy maintenance cuts capacity by up to 150 million cubic metres a day | TTF volatility during storage refill | Gassco via Argus |
| 2022-10 | Baltic Pipe to Poland enters service | New route for Norwegian gas to Central Europe | Gassco |
| 2022-09-26 | Nord Stream sabotage | Norway steps up protection of offshore infrastructure | Norwegian government |
What to watch
- Gassco daily flow and outage data (UMM notices): the fastest signal of unplanned supply loss.
- The summer maintenance schedule, which sets how fast Europe can refill storage.
- Norwegian Offshore Directorate production forecasts and new field approvals.
- Hammerfest LNG availability, Norway's only seaborne outlet.
FAQ
How much gas does Norway export? About 122 bcm in 2025, of which 114.9 bcm went by pipeline through the Gassco system and the rest as LNG from Hammerfest. The pipeline record was 117.6 bcm in 2024.
How much of Europe's gas comes from Norway? About 30% of combined EU and UK consumption, and 30.9% of EU gas imports in 2025, making Norway the largest single supplier. Germany is the biggest buyer, followed by the UK, France and Belgium.
Can Norway replace Russian or Qatari gas? No. Norway is producing close to its maximum and Gassco expects deliveries of 110 to 120 bcm in 2026. Output is forecast to decline after 2027, so any further supply for Europe has to come from LNG, mostly from the United States.
What is the Troll field? Europe's largest gas field, operated by Equinor in the North Sea. It produced a record 42.5 bcm in 2024, more than a tenth of European demand, which is why an outage there moves European gas prices immediately.
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