China export controls on critical minerals: rare earths, gallium, germanium and the November 2026 deadlines

China export controls on critical minerals now cover rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, several other metals and the technology used to process them. Since 2023 Beijing has built a licensing system around the materials it dominates: China accounted for about 91% of rare earth refining and 94% of sintered rare earth magnet production in 2024, according to the IEA, and 99% of primary low-purity gallium, according to the USGS. The controls do not ban trade outright. They make every shipment depend on a licence that Beijing can grant, delay or refuse, and they bar supply to foreign military end users. See rare earths, gallium and germanium.

As of September 2026, the system runs on three tracks. The licensing of seven medium and heavy rare earths introduced in April 2025 is fully in force. A much broader October 2025 package, which added five more rare earths, processing equipment and extraterritorial rules for products containing Chinese rare earths, is suspended until 10 November 2026 under MOFCOM Announcement 70. And the December 2024 ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States is suspended until 27 November 2026 under Announcement 72. Both suspensions followed the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan on 30 October 2025. Whether they are extended is the most important near-term variable for these supply chains.

Key numbers

How the dependency works

Track 1: standing licences. Gallium and germanium have required export licences since 1 August 2023, graphite since December 2023 and antimony since September 2024. Tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium were added in February 2025. In April 2025, China added samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium, the heavy rare earths that make magnets work at high temperature. These licences remain in force; the USGS notes that China began issuing general licences to selected exporters in late 2025.

Track 2: the suspended October package. On 9 October 2025, MOFCOM announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 added europium, holmium, erbium, thulium and ytterbium, controlled rare earth production equipment and technology, lithium battery materials and superhard materials, and introduced rules reaching products made abroad with Chinese rare earth content. All of this is suspended until 10 November 2026.

Track 3: the US-specific ban. On 3 December 2024, China banned in principle the export of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States. That ban is suspended until 27 November 2026, but the prohibition on supplying any dual-use item to US military users or military end uses remains in effect.

Why it exists

China built dominance in processing, not in geology. Rare earths are found in many countries, and gallium and germanium are by-products of aluminium and zinc refining that any country could recover, but decades of low-cost, state-supported processing concentrated refining, separation and magnet-making in China. The controls turned that position into leverage. They followed US and allied restrictions on semiconductor technology exports to China, and Chinese officials describe them as standard dual-use regulation.

Risks and disruption scenarios

The immediate risk is a lapse in November 2026. If Announcement 70 expires, the extraterritorial rules and the five additional rare earths return on 10 November; if Announcement 72 expires, the US-specific ban on gallium, germanium and antimony returns on 27 November. Even without a lapse, licences can be slowed: controls on dual-use exports to Japan in early 2026 reportedly halted Chinese dysprosium and terbium shipments there, which should be confirmed against official data ⏳.

The structural risk is that alternatives take years. A USGS model estimates that a complete one-year restriction of Chinese gallium exports would cut US GDP by about $3.1 billion, and about $3.4 billion if germanium were restricted too. New refining capacity outside China is under construction but small.

Diversification efforts

• United States. A Defense Department partnership with MP Materials, announced in July 2025, set a price floor for neodymium-praseodymium and funded magnet production; the National Defense Stockpile planned purchases of NdPr oxide, magnet block and samarium-cobalt alloy in fiscal 2025, per the USGS.
• Australia and Malaysia. Lynas began separating heavy rare earths in Malaysia in 2025, the first commercial source outside China.
• New gallium projects in Australia, Canada, Greece, Kazakhstan and South Korea, per the USGS.
• European Union. The Critical Raw Materials Act sets targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling.

Historical incidents

What to watch

• 10 and 27 November 2026: the expiry dates of Announcements 70 and 72.
• MOFCOM licence approvals and general licences for selected exporters.
• Chinese customs data on exports of rare earths, magnets, gallium and germanium by destination.
• Price gaps between Chinese domestic and international prices, the clearest signal of how tight licensing is.
• Start-up of non-Chinese capacity at Lynas, MP Materials and the new gallium projects.

FAQ

What export controls has China placed on critical minerals? Licences for gallium and germanium (2023), graphite (2023), antimony (2024), several minor metals (2025) and seven medium and heavy rare earths (April 2025). A wider October 2025 package and a December 2024 ban on gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the US are suspended until November 2026.

When do China's export control suspensions expire? The suspension of the October 2025 measures expires on 10 November 2026 and the suspension of the US-specific ban on gallium, germanium and antimony on 27 November 2026, unless Beijing extends them.

Are rare earth exports from China restricted now? Yes. The April 2025 licensing of seven medium and heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, was never suspended. Only the October 2025 expansion is paused.

Why does China dominate critical minerals? Mainly through processing. China refines about 91% of rare earths and makes about 94% of sintered magnets, per the IEA, and produces 99% of primary gallium, per the USGS. Other countries have deposits, but building refining capacity takes years and has rarely been competitive against Chinese costs.