Cape of Good Hope shipping route: the detour that became the main road

The Cape of Good Hope shipping route carried about 9.1 million barrels a day of crude and products in the first half of 2025, according to the EIA, around 11% of world seaborne oil trade and more than the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb or the Danish Straits. In 2023 it carried 6.2 mb/d. The difference is traffic that used to go through the Red Sea and now sails around the southern tip of Africa, adding 10 to 14 days to a voyage between Asia and Europe.

The EIA does not classify the Cape as a chokepoint. It is open ocean, cannot be blockaded and has no single point that can be closed. It belongs in this encyclopedia because it is the pressure valve for two chokepoints that can: when Bab el-Mandeb or the Suez Canal is disrupted, the Cape sets the cost of the detour. Since 2024 it has been the default route for most container traffic between Asia and Europe, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, followed by a Houthi embargo on Saudi shipping, pushed more cargo onto it. The constraint here is not access but capacity: time, fuel, ships and the ports along the way.

Key numbers

Metric	Value	Source	As of
Oil flow around the Cape	9.1 mb/d	EIA	2025-H1
Oil flow in 2024	9.3 mb/d	EIA	2024
Oil flow before the Red Sea crisis	6.2 mb/d	EIA	2023
Share of world maritime oil trade	~11%	EIA	2025-H1
Arabian Sea to Netherlands via Suez	19 days	EIA	static
Arabian Sea to Netherlands via the Cape	34 days	EIA	static
Extra fuel per Asia-Europe voyage	~$1 million	Defense Intelligence Agency	2024
Global container capacity absorbed by the detour	15% to 20%	Maersk	2024
Durban in the World Bank port efficiency ranking	341 of 348	World Bank CPPI	2022

What flows around the Cape of Good Hope

Before 2024 the Cape route was mainly for cargo that could not or did not need to use Suez: very large crude carriers too deep for the canal loaded, West African crude to Asia, Brazilian crude and iron ore to China, and bulk trade between the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The EIA series shows the oil flow at 7.9 mb/d in 2020, falling to 6.1 mb/d in 2022 as Europe's search for non-Russian barrels drew more tankers through Suez.

The Red Sea campaign reversed that. Oil around the Cape jumped to 9.3 mb/d in 2024 as Gulf crude and products for Europe and the Americas, and Russian and Atlantic cargoes for Asia, stopped using Bab el-Mandeb. Container lines moved almost their entire Asia to Europe networks onto the route from December 2023, and LNG carriers followed after QatarEnergy stopped routing ships past Yemen in January 2024.

The 2026 war added a second layer. When Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM had begun testing the Red Sea again, the start of the conflict with Iran in March 2026 sent them back around Africa, Reuters reported. IMF PortWatch counted a seven-day average of about 78 Cape transits a day in early March 2026, more than were then passing Hormuz.

Who depends on the Cape of Good Hope

Europe and Asia both depend on it, but only as the price of avoiding the Red Sea. For European importers the detour means 15 extra days on a Gulf cargo, per the EIA's 19 against 34 days to the Netherlands. For Asian exporters it means longer loops, more ships per service and higher freight.

Container shipping depends on it most. Maersk estimated that routing Asia to Europe services around Africa absorbed 15% to 20% of global effective container capacity in 2024. Longer voyages tighten the market for the whole fleet, which is why freight rates on routes that never touch the Red Sea also rose.

Southern African coastal states are the geographic beneficiaries and have mostly failed to capture the business. The World Bank's 2022 Container Port Performance Index ranked Durban 341st and Cape Town 344th of 348 ports. Offshore bunkering in Algoa Bay, South Africa's largest bunker-only call, was suspended in September 2023 when the revenue service detained five barges over customs disputes, just as rerouted traffic arrived. Maersk told Reuters its ships would refuel en route at Walvis Bay in Namibia or Port Louis in Mauritius instead.

Alternatives and bypass routes

The Cape is itself the alternative. What it competes with:

Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The short route, 19 days from the Arabian Sea to the Netherlands. Its availability depends on security at Bab el-Mandeb, not on the canal.

Panama Canal. Relevant for US Gulf Coast LNG and grain to Asia, which can go west through Panama or east around the Cape. Panama's own capacity limits during the 2023 drought pushed some of that traffic onto the Cape too.

Northern Sea Route. Seasonal, limited to ice-class ships and politically closed to most Western operators since 2022.

Overland. China to Europe rail and sea-air through Dubai move high-value goods at a tiny fraction of maritime volumes.

There is no bypass for the Cape because nothing needs to bypass it. The question is how much traffic it can absorb and at what cost.

Historical incidents

Date	Event	Observed impact	Source
2026-09-12	Houthis take Perim island and complete control of Yemen's Red Sea coast	Carriers begin diverting to the Cape before the island changes hands	Al Jazeera; Kpler via The National
2026-07-20	Houthis declare a maritime embargo on Saudi shipping	Seven ships divert within 48 hours; Saudi-linked tonnage leaves the southern Red Sea	Lloyd's List Intelligence
2026-03	War with Iran closes Hormuz; major container lines reroute around the Cape again	Cape transits average about 78 a day in early March, above Hormuz	Reuters; IMF PortWatch
2024-07-09	CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin loses 44 containers in a winter storm off South Africa	Transnet halts ship movements at Cape Town, Saldanha, Port Elizabeth and Ngqura	CMA CGM; Transnet
2023-12	Container lines move Asia to Europe networks around Africa after Houthi attacks	Cape oil flow rises from 6.2 mb/d in 2023 to 9.3 mb/d in 2024; Durban backlog reaches 79 vessels	EIA; Reuters
2023-09-12	South African revenue service detains five bunker vessels in Algoa Bay	Offshore bunkering suspended as rerouted traffic arrives	Reuters; Ship & Bunker
2021-03	Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal for six days	Some ships divert around the Cape rather than wait	Suez Canal Authority
1967-06 to 1975-06	Suez Canal closed after the Six-Day War	The Cape carries Gulf to Europe trade for eight years and drives the shift to supertankers	Suez Canal Authority

Assets and companies exposed

Ports and bunkering. Transnet National Ports Authority (Durban, Cape Town, Ngqura, Port Elizabeth, Saldanha), Namport at Walvis Bay, Port Louis in Mauritius, and bunker suppliers including Monjasa, Minerva and Trafigura's TFG Marine, which told Reuters it was delivering larger volumes in Singapore for longer voyages.

Container lines. Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO and Evergreen, which carry the fuel, charter and schedule cost of the detour and pass it on through surcharges.

Tanker and bulk owners. Longer routes lift tonne-miles. Owners of VLCC, Suezmax and LNG tonnage gain from the same disruption that costs cargo owners.

Insurers. Hull and cargo underwriters price the weather: the Cape of Storms and the cyclone-prone Mozambique Channel mean higher fuel burn, cargo loss risk and delays. This entry is descriptive: the encyclopedia does not publish recommendations.

What to watch

• Cape transit counts on IMF PortWatch, weekly. A sustained fall would be the first sign that Red Sea routes are reopening.
• EIA quarterly chokepoint data for Cape oil volumes against Suez and Bab el-Mandeb.
• Container network announcements: any major Asia to Europe loop returning to Suez takes volume off the Cape.
• South African port performance and Algoa Bay bunkering status: whether the region captures refuelling and services demand or loses it to Namibia and Mauritius. The status of Algoa Bay bunkering in 2026 was not confirmed at the time of writing ⏳.
• Southern winter weather, June to August, when storms close Cape ports and cause container losses.

FAQ

How much longer is the Cape of Good Hope route than the Suez Canal? It adds 10 to 14 days to a voyage between Asia and Europe. The EIA calculates 19 days from the Arabian Sea to the Netherlands via Suez against 34 days around Africa. The extra fuel for one Asia to Europe voyage is roughly $1 million, according to US Defense Intelligence Agency estimates.

How much oil goes around the Cape of Good Hope? About 9.1 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, according to the EIA, up from 6.2 mb/d in 2023. That is around 11% of all oil traded by sea, and more than passes through Suez or Bab el-Mandeb.

Why are ships going around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal? Because the Red Sea approach to the canal is unsafe. Houthi attacks from late 2023 pushed most container lines onto the Cape, and in 2026 the war with Iran and a Houthi embargo on Saudi shipping kept them there. The canal itself is open.

Is the Cape of Good Hope a chokepoint? Not in the strict sense. It is open ocean and cannot be closed. The EIA treats it as a major trade route and the main alternative to the Red Sea chokepoints. Its constraints are time, fuel, weather and the limited port capacity along southern Africa.

Does South Africa benefit from the rerouting? Less than it could. The ships pass South Africa but often do not stop: Durban and Cape Town rank near the bottom of the World Bank's port efficiency index, and offshore bunkering in Algoa Bay was suspended in 2023. Carriers have refuelled at Walvis Bay, Port Louis or their origin ports instead.

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